Market Outlook #258 (third March 2024)
Hiya and welcome to the 258th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s put up, I might be protecting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Filecoin, ImmutableX, Beam, Ethereum Title Service and Myro. I might be publishing an extended Outlook subsequent week with a couple of extra smallcaps in fascinating sectors, however if in case you have any requests please do let me know.
Bitcoin:
Month-to-month:
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth: $62,624
Market Cap: $1.231trn
Ideas: Starting with the Month-to-month chart for BTC/USD, we will see that February was one of many strongest months in historical past for Bitcoin, rallying off the month-to-month open all the way in which into the month-to-month shut at ~$61,200. This did happen on barely much less quantity than January, however the sheer energy of the price-action right here is clear, with the pair closing by way of the 78.6% fib of the bear market at $57.6k and above $59k resistance, having marginally rejected on the final stage of resistance under all-time highs at $64,900. Worth is presently holding to a steep parabolic advance, as proven by the curve of the rally to date, and may this advance maintain into March we should always see continuation by way of all-time highs, with $100k as the plain main stage overhead to seek out vital resistance, with it being each a psychological stage and the 1.618 extension of the bear market. There’s additionally loads of room for upside relative to prior cycles on momentum indicators, which look primed for continuation.
If we take a look at the weekly chart, we will see how this previous week rallied off that weekly open round $52.1k, having consolidated in a really tight vary the week prior, pushing by way of $59.2k into $64.1k and now set to shut round $62.6k. All of this occurred on big quantity on the week, persevering with the sample of progress following the consolidation week. Weekly RSI is pushing into new highs, indicating rampant momentum right here, and we now have solely $64,900 standing in the way in which of latest highs past $69.2k. The parabola has additionally been depicted right here, nevertheless, and we do have additional room to consolidate following this growth if required while nonetheless holding the parabolic advance. Now, what’s type of wild is that this tempo of advance is indicative of costs near $100k as early as this summer season. What we might even see happen – and what could be extra typical of a 4-year cycle – could be a break of the parabola shortly following new all-time highs, consolidation for a interval after which a brand new parabolic advance into the market cycle peak. If, nevertheless, we merely maintain to this curve and rally into and past the summer season, it’s probably we see a cyclical prime inside 2024. Waiting for subsequent week, I believe it’s extremely probably if ETF inflows persist we see this resistance damaged and worth push into that all-time excessive, the place I might count on to see quite a lot of volatility, notably given the quantity of leverage within the markets at current.
Turning lastly to the each day, we will see that worth has been consolidating in tightening each day ranges for the previous 4 days following the break and shut by way of $59.2k. Provided that momentum is exhibiting no indicators of exhaustion on any timeframe we’ve checked out, one is inclined to count on upside decision to this consolidation. Nonetheless, as we do have *quite a bit* of leverage right here, I might not be stunned to see price-action much like final week the place we take out native lows into assist at $59.2k earlier than reversing sharply larger by way of $65k. Wild week forward…
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth: $3464.82 (0.05531 BTC)
Market Cap: $416.329bn
Ideas: Starting with ETH/USD, we will see from the weekly that the pair has continued to rally larger, constructing on the previous three weeks of comparable price-action, rallying off that weekly open into the weekly shut right here at $3460, shy of prior assist at $3580 – the extent we’ve marked out as a goal for a swing place for a while now. this, there are not any clear causes to count on the rally to stop right here, with momentum in full assist of bulls and no indicators of rejection but. That mentioned, I’ve now exited levered longs, holding solely spot ETH as we go into subsequent week – no have to be a hero up right here, in my opinion. If we do reject $3580. I might count on a higher-low to type over the subsequent couple of weeks above $2800 and worth to proceed from there into $3950. Nonetheless, if we don’t reject subsequent week, I believe it’s probably this simply continues to tear into that $3950 stage shortly thereafter, with solely $4385 then holding it down earlier than recent all-time highs. It’s probably that this final transfer upwards into all-time highs will happen when BTC/USD has damaged all-time highs and consolidated, permitting ETH/BTC to proceed to maneuver larger.
Turning to ETH/BTC, we will see that regardless of the profitable breakout past long-term trendline resistance, this previous week of price-action in BTC/USD has weighed closely, inflicting the pair to retrace the rally all the way in which again under the trendline, under the 200wMA, and again into assist at 0.0551. This really is chop metropolis right here, however we do have some indicators of energy in momentum and construction right here, so long as this now holds above 0.051; if BTC/USD makes a brand new all-time excessive subsequent week and ETH/BTC doesn’t make a lower-low under 0.051, that may be a *big* signal of energy, in my opinion. Wanting briefly on the each day, we will see how the 360dMA capped the final rally, however each day construction is wanting first rate right here as we type a higher-low above that 0.0533 stage. Actually, till we see BTC break all-time highs, it’s onerous to have a learn on this on the each day timeframe in any respect – I simply wish to see 0.051 maintain on that all-time excessive break to make sure on betting on ETH energy from there.
Filecoin:
FIL/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
FIL/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth: $10.65 (16,871 satoshis)
Market Cap: $5.505bn
Ideas: If we start by FIL/USD, we will see from the weekly that worth turned weekly construction bullish on the transfer by way of $6.74 into $8.13, retraced to seek out assist above $4.63 and has since rallied on rising quantity into $11.25 this previous week, confirming the uptrend. Momentum additionally appears robust right here, and if the pair can maintain above $8.13 subsequent week I might count on to see worth commerce by way of $11.25 in the direction of the subsequent main resistance at $17. Actually although, we’re barely leaving disbelief for this market cycle as worth breaks by way of $11.25, with the 23.6% fib of the bear market all the way in which up close to $57. If you’re a spot holder from the lows, I might simply sit comfortably and await on the very least a 200wMA retest at $26, with main resistance above that at $30, earlier than seeking to exit something in any respect. If we drop into the each day, we will additionally see how the confluence of the 200dMA and 360dMA acted as assist, with the previous now crossing above the latter (an indication of an rising bull marketplace for alts). From there, worth rallied into recent yearly highs, with each day construction firmly bullish. There are not any indicators of exhaustion right here both, so any pull-backs in the direction of $8.80 could be shopping for alternatives, for my part, with invalidation under $6.74.
Turning to FIL/BTC, on the weekly we will see that the pair continues to be very a lot at cycle lows, having solely simply bounced off of all-time lows at 10.6k satoshis, by way of 14.2k as reclaimed assist into 18.5k satoshis this previous week, which is prior assist turned resistance. We now have had diminishing volatility into this assist cluster for months, and an in depth by way of 18.5k would flip weekly construction bullish right here. If we see that, I believe it’s protected to say the pair is rising from a bear market right into a bull market and we will count on sustained outperformance from there. In that situation I believe we imply revert in the direction of that 200wMA at 80k satoshis, just under the 23.6% fib, within the coming months. If we briefly drop into the each day, we will additionally see how the 200dMA is now appearing as resistance and the 360dMA, which capped rallies just lately, has been breached and is now appearing as assist additionally, offering confluence for this bottoming formation. Not a lot else so as to add right here for now however this appears stable for energy within the subsequent few weeks.
ImmutableX:
IMX/USD
Each day:
IMX/BTC
Each day:
Worth: $3.26 (5211 satoshis)
Market Cap: $4.541bn
Ideas: As IMX has solely been buying and selling for a few years, each pairs look nearly equivalent right here, so let’s deal with the greenback pair.
IMX/USD, we will see that following a higher-low formation above assist at $1.76, worth continued the uptrend, rallying by way of the $2.61 excessive in February into $3.70, the place it discovered resistance proper across the 50% fib of the bear market and simply shy of the 100% fib extension of the present uptrend. We now have since seen worth consolidate while momentum indicators reset, with prior resistance at $2.87 now appearing as assist. From right here, I’m anticipating one other leg larger to unfold, resulting in a retest of main resistance at $4.50 – across the 61.8% fib of the bear market, together with the final stage of horizontal resistance. That’s the place I’m seeking to unload half of my spot bag of IMX from the lows – with a view to holding the remaining for worth discovery by way of $7, as any shut by way of $4.50 has no resistance into that all-time excessive stage… it’s been experience to date.
Beam:
BEAM/USD
Each day:
BEAM/BTC
Each day:
Worth: $0.0341 (54 satoshis)
Market Cap: $1.794bn
Ideas: Once more, I’ll focus right here on the Greenback pair for Beam, because it has solely been buying and selling for a couple of months.
BEAM/USD, we will see that worth emerged from the prior consolidation vary, flipped that prior all-time excessive at assist at $0.0275 and has been slowly grinding up and consolidating since, pushing into a brand new excessive at $0.038 however discovering a lot resistance at $0.0366. For the most effective a part of the previous month, prior resistance at $0.0307 has acted as assist on this vary and we’ve had bearish divergence. There are presently no indicators that the bearish divergence will play out, however the first signal could be an in depth by way of $0.0307, turning that stage into reclaimed resistance, from which level I might count on to see $0.0275 swept earlier than a brand new low types and worth resumes the uptrend. If, nevertheless, worth merely pushes by way of $0.037 within the coming days and finds assist above that all-time excessive, making higher-highs on RSI, we invalidate this divergence, and that’s often a really robust sign for one more leg larger. In that situation, I’m $0.051 as a significant goal, as it’s the confluence of the 200% extension of the prior consolidation and the 300% extension of the uptrend. Longer-term, I’m searching for costs properly past $0.051, however we are going to then be stepping into the latter phases of the market cycle: my expectations are a $10bn+ FDV for Beam when all is alleged and performed, so we’ve nonetheless received 5-6x in it at the very least if my expectations play out.
Ethereum Title Service:
ENS/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
ENS/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth: $22.27 (35,471 satoshis)
Market Cap: $685.627mn
Ideas: Starting with ENS/USD, on the weekly we will see that worth has been consolidating for many of this yr following that prime quantity rally by way of a number of key resistance ranges. We hit $27.43 off that rally and have since been capped by $24.30 as resistance, discovering assist above $14.55. The previous few weeks have been spent proper up close to that vary resistance, with this week seeing a profitable retest of prior resistance turned assist at $18.50. If we drop into the each day for extra readability, we will see how momentum has fully reset however is holding above that fifty mark as higher-lows type on the value chart, which is promising for bulls. We now have native trendline resistance capping the highs, however I’m seeking to open a levered lengthy on an in depth above $24.30, turning that stage and the trendline into assist, as I count on we are going to start the subsequent leg larger into the $38-41 vary from there. I’m additionally nonetheless holding my full spot place from $8.50ish, which I’m not seeking to promote any time quickly, with a view to carry for the 50% fib of the bear market round $85-90. In the event you’re on the sidelines, this subsequent break and shut by way of resistance is precisely what you wish to pounce on when it comes…
Turning to ENS/BTC, we will see that the pair retraced a lot of the single-week rally over the previous couple of months, closing by way of assist turned resistance at 43,300 satoshis this week, as worth offered off into reclaimed assist above 32k. I’m anticipating a higher-low to type above the 30k area in March, from which we see continuation of the bull cycle for ENS by way of 65k satoshis into the October 2022 Excessive round 108k satoshis – the 38.2% fib of the bear market. Above that stage, we enter the endgame and method the latter phases of the market cycle, however, if we drop into the each day, we will see that worth is discovering assist above each the 200dMA and 360dMA, which had acted as resistance prior – and if in case you have but to purchase spot ENS and wish to hitch your wagon to the Vitalik-endorsed Categorical, someplace within the the 30-32k satoshi area would make good sense, particularly if BTC blasts by way of all-time highs within the near-term and gives one other dump on the ENS/BTC pair into assist. So long as 26k satoshis doesn’t give method, I believe this nonetheless appears stable.
Myro:
MYRO/USD
Each day:
![Cosmos [ATOM]: Merchants ought to look ahead to this key worth motion](https://sarkariresultbihar.info/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/News-Articles-FI-Editors-2024-11-21T100128.179-1000x600-120x86.jpg)
MYRO/BTC
Each day:
Worth: $0.158 (255 satoshis)
Market Cap: $157.943mn
Ideas: As Myro has solely been buying and selling for a couple of months, let’s focus right here on the Greenback pair.
MYRO/USD, we will see that worth consolidated after that all-time excessive at $0.26, retracing quickly into $0.041 as assist in the beginning of February. From there, worth fashioned a multi-week vary capped by prior assist at $0.11, forming a higher-low above $0.052 in mid-February earlier than rallying by way of that $0.11 stage a few days in the past, as memecoin mania started to kick into gear. That stage is now appearing as assist, and worth is sat simply shy of prior resistance at $0.176. I’m anticipating to see continuation by way of this stage into the prior all-time excessive within the subsequent couple of weeks, main to cost discovery and continuation of the broader uptrend. The following goal by way of $0.26 could be $0.44 because the 1.618 extension of the development, adopted by $0.53. Little else so as to add right here.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be at liberty to go away any feedback or questions under, or e mail me instantly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
![Cosmos [ATOM]: Merchants ought to look ahead to this key worth motion](https://sarkariresultbihar.info/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/News-Articles-FI-Editors-2024-11-21T100128.179-1000x600-350x250.jpg)
