Market Outlook #259 (thirteenth March 2024)
Hey and welcome to the 259th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s submit, I will likely be protecting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Polygon, Uniswap, Cosmos, Arweave, Vulcan Solid, enqAI, Banana Gun, League of Kingdoms and BuildAI. All of those had been readers requests this week, which is nice to see! For the newer, purely on-chain performs, I’ve centered solely on the USD pair, as there’s little or no price-history obtainable.
As ever, when you’ve got any requests for subsequent week, please do let me know by way of e mail or within the feedback.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value: $72,931
Market Cap: $1.435trn
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at BTC/USD, on the weekly timeframe we are able to see that value closed final week proper on that prior all-time excessive at $69k, on rising quantity. Since, buying and selling this week has seen Bitcoin enter value discovery, pushing into $73.7k, under which it’s at present sat. Momentum indicators are very a lot bullish at current, with no indicators of exhaustion on this timeframe simply but. We now additionally haven’t any resistance ranges, given value discovery, and so the primary main degree overhead of any concern will likely be $100k, being arguably probably the most vital psychological quantity in its historical past alongside the 1.618 fib extension of the bear market. Little doubt we are going to see loads of volatility as we method that degree. We are able to additionally see from the weekly that value has been in a parabolic advance for the reason that November 2022 backside, and most not too long ago broke and closed above channel resistance at $53k, after which it has not seemed again, steepening the curve of the advance. If this parabola holds agency into the halving, we’re taking a look at $100k by Could, as absurd as that may have sounded 6 months in the past. Such is the energy of the bid. Now, if we occur to search out resistance within the subsequent few weeks and break that parabola, I might then count on a interval of prolonged consolidation earlier than the subsequent leg increased begins, however let’s cross that bridge once we come to it. For now, so long as this week closes firmly via $69k, I believe the subsequent month is broadly up solely (with shallow however sharp wicks to deleverage the market).
Turning to the each day, we are able to see that there’s some momentum divergence forming right here as we now have emerged into value discovery, however nothing that has been confirmed but – this might very nicely simply hold grinding increased till momentum makes recent highs and invalidates any exhaustion. That mentioned, if we reject under $75k (the 1.618 extension of the present pattern) after which break and shut again inside $69k, we now have confluence between value and momentum for a deeper pull-back, doubtless again in the direction of $60k to retest that assist degree earlier than one other breakout try. Assuming the pattern holds – which is my view right here – we should always see some minor rejection at $75k, a higher-low above $69k after which continuation in the direction of $85k by the top of the month, invalidating the present perceived weak spot in RSI. Not a lot else so as to add right here at current.
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value: $3992.50 (0.0546 BTC)
Market Cap: $479.451bn
Ideas: Starting with ETH/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that the pair continues to tear increased on step by step rising quantity week-on-week, having examined $3350 as assist final week and bounced all the way in which into the weekly shut simply shy of $3900. Value is now consolidating early this week round that $3950 resistance degree, and any acceptance via right here opens up continuation into the final degree earlier than all-time highs, at $4385. Nothing to recommend exhaustion right here on the upper timeframes both. If we drop into the each day, we are able to see a bit of little bit of divergence on the latest push increased, however the pattern has been relentless and steep, providing solely sharp however transient wicks to purchase into. We bought one other a type of a few days in the past, and until we now shut again under $3950 and switch it into resistance I’m anticipating this pattern to persist into $4385 earlier than the eventual breakout and value discovery in just a few weeks time. Final cycle, it took 48 days for ETH to make a recent all-time excessive after Bitcoin, however provided that this cycle is progressing extra quickly than the final I might not be shocked to see ETH at $5k in early April.
Turning to ETH/BTC, we are able to see that the pair continues to cut round between the 200wMA and 360dMA, however value is forming higher-lows for now. So long as the 360wMA at 0.053 holds, this construction will stay intact and I might count on an upside breakout past 0.06 to observe shortly. If, nonetheless, we shut under 0.053, it’s doubtless we see the underside of this cluster swept into 0.049 once more to retest that low as assist, with the potential of a wick under that if BTC/USD goes on a tear in the direction of $100k earlier than a pointy reversal. Wanting on the each day, we are able to see this construction clearly, with the pair now winding tighter with decrease highs and higher-lows, doubtless culminating in some volatility both facet of 0.053 and 0.058 within the subsequent week or two. I do suppose the legit breakout and continuation increased is shut – simply not sure at current whether or not we see a front-run of BTC consolidating after a run-up earlier than marking the underside, or whether or not the pair wicks under all of this assist after which reverses sharply just like the January price-action (fake-out) showcased…
Polygon:
MATIC/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
MATIC/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value: $1.28 (1752 satoshis)
Market Cap: $11.907bn
Ideas: Starting with MATIC/USD, we are able to see that the pair has bullish weekly construction following final week’s agency shut via $1.10, establishing the uptrend and opening up continuation into the 2023 highs at $1.56. Weekly momentum can be wanting first rate right here for additional upside and this week has seen value discover assist at that prior resistance round $1.10 and bounce. For those who’re holding MATIC longs right here, I might look to hedge round $1.40 and reopen publicity on a clear breakout via $1.60 for the remainder of the cycle, as there’s quite a lot of resistance up right here, so we may see some volatility. However if you happen to’re in spot, truthfully simply sitting in your palms and letting the market drag this via $1.56 is your finest wager, with $2 as the first goal after that degree is cleared. I don’t suppose MATIC will likely be an outperformer this cycle relative to different large-caps given its efficiency final cycle, however I might not be shocked in any respect to see some minor value discovery via $3 earlier than the cycle peaks. Turning to the each day, we are able to see some divergence in momentum right here, very like BTC and ETH, however given the proximity to main resistance right here I might be extra involved, as defined prior. If we do reject off this $1.31-1.43 vary, I might not be shocked to see $1.10 retested to mark out a higher-low within the broader pattern earlier than continuation via $1.56.
MATIC/BTC, we are able to see how value swept the underside of the multi-year vary at 1717 satoshis into 1550 however closed again above the vary final week, now holding it as assist. This might act as a classical spring formation, from which we might see value rally via 2100 satoshis over the subsequent couple of weeks, turning weekly construction bullish. If as an alternative we see lacklustre price-action this week and assist fails as BTC strikes increased, I might not need to personal Matic whatever the Greenback pair, given there’s zero assist under and we’d be seeing no indicators of energy at a key historic degree. All to play for right here…
Uniswap:
UNI/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
UNI/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value: $14.08 (19,270 satoshis)
Market Cap: $10.62bn
Ideas: Starting with the weekly timeframe for UNI/USD, we are able to see that value rallied via $13 into $17.50 as resistance final week however rejected, nonetheless closing firmly above that vast historic degree that preceded capitulation in 2022. This could now act as assist this week, and in that case I might count on one other crack at $17.50 to observe, which is simply a minor resistance degree – above that, nonetheless, we now have the 38.2% fib and prior resistance round $20, adopted by the 50% fib and main historic degree at $25. I might count on to see some type of native prime between these ranges for the subsequent pullback and consolidation earlier than continuation increased. Wanting on the each day, we are able to see some minor divergence on momentum however construction is tremendous clear right here, with resistance changing into assist as we push increased. So long as we don’t see the pair shut again under $13 this week, up solely continues. If we do shut under that degree, I might look to purchase blood as near $10 because the market will give me, however I might not count on a lot, to be trustworthy.
Turning to UNI/BTC, we are able to see that value has turned weekly construction bullish and is now simply consolidating round prior resistance at 17.5k satoshis. Weekly momentum is trending increased and we’re very a lot wanting prepared for extra upside within the coming weeks. If we drop into the each day for extra readability, we are able to see that the 360dMA is now appearing as assist, as is prior resistance at 18.9k satoshis. If this space between 17.5k and 19k satoshis can maintain, I might count on 35k satoshis to be the subsequent goal because the 1.618 extension of the pattern. Solely under 17.5k would there be any cause to get bearish given the implications for market construction. Nothing else so as to add right here – that is very clear.
Cosmos:
ATOM/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
ATOM/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value: $13.65 (18,710 satoshis)
Market Cap: $5.318bn
Ideas: Starting with ATOM/USD, we are able to see related construction to MATIC, with a higher-low in October 2023 above the Could 2022 capitulation low resulting in a shift to bullish weekly construction and the formation of an uptrend. This pattern was solidified final week with an in depth via trendline resistance from the September 2022 highs. Weekly RSI can be making recent highs however value is now pushing up into the 200wMA at $14, simply shy of the multi-year resistance cluster between $14.60-16. This, very like MATIC, places you in a little bit of a pickle if you happen to’re levered closely and lengthy: there could possibly be a violent response off this overhead resistance, so most likely finest to hedge up right here and reopen lengthy publicity via $16 if that’s the way you’re enjoying this, however if you happen to’re holding spot then sit in your palms till finally that degree breaks and ‘simple mode’ begins in the direction of $20 as the subsequent resistance. Long run, I count on this one to push again into all-time highs, however unsure about huge intervals of value discovery via $47.
Turning to ATOM/BTC, we are able to see that the pair has been in a downtrend since September 2022, most not too long ago breaking under assist at 20k satoshis to search out assist at that historic 17.8k degree, which marked the underside in 2019. We do have some indicators of pattern exhaustion right here as we now have approached this degree and subsequently the potential of reversal, however no precise construction but to substantiate this. If we break and shut under 17.8k, I might count on the all-time lows at 14.2k satoshis to be swept earlier than any significant reversal begins. Wanting on the each day for readability, I’ve marked out what we may even see if this 17.8k degree is to carry, which is a pointy sweep via the extent adopted by a reclaim and rally via 20.4k satoshis into 22.7k satoshis, then forming a higher-low again above that 20.4k satoshi space – if we see this, I’m on board for ATOM outperformance going ahead. Till then, not one I’m eager to carry with so many higher alternatives current.
Arweave:
AR/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
AR/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value: $37.97 (52,140 satoshis)
Market Cap: $2.491bn
Ideas: If we glance firstly at AR/USD, we are able to see that value has been on a tear the previous few weeks, with final week bouncing off resistance turned assist at $23 and pushing up so far as the 50% fib retracement of the bear market at $48 earlier than closing the week out at $41. We’ve no indicators of exhaustion on the weekly and loads of quantity on this most up-to-date push increased, however I might not be shocked to see some consolidation right here above $34 and under $44 the remainder of this week. As quickly as we shut above $44 on the weekly, I believe we’re gonna see acceleration in the direction of $72 as the subsequent main resistance degree earlier than recent all-time highs later this yr. Dropping into the each day, very like others cash we are able to see some exhaustion on the final push increased however nothing structurally to point a lot decrease costs are inbound . Somewhat, I count on a higher-low to kind above prior resistance at $34. If that degree does fail, I believe we commerce again in the direction of $27.50, the place there’s loads of demand. To the upside, simply getting a clear break via final week’s highs will open up vital upside, as aside from the 61.8% fib at $59, there actually isn’t a lot overhead resistance earlier than $72.
Turning to AR/BTC, we are able to see that weekly construction is firmly bullish and value has not too long ago examined the 38.2% fib of the bar market at 68k satoshis, earlier than rejecting and now consolidating between reclaimed assist at 50k and resistance round 65k satoshis. Once more, so long as that 50k degree now holds as assist, I believe we simply proceed to push increased within the subsequent week or two in the direction of trendline resistance from the all-time highs and the 50% fib at 85.6k satoshis. Wanting on the each day, the image is basically the identical because it was for the Greenback pair, with some momentum divergence right here however construction nonetheless wanting stable for a higher-low above that 44-50k satoshi vary. Except we see 37.8k fail, each day construction continues to be bullish and the pattern is undamaged, so no cause to overcomplicate this to be trustworthy…
Vulcan Solid:
PYR/USD
Day by day:
PYR/BTC
Day by day:
Value: $9,47 (13,001 satoshis)
Market Cap: $226.443mn
Ideas: I’ll focus solely right here on the Greenback pair for Vulcan Solid.
PYR/USD, we are able to see that the pair emerged from a multi-year vary in November 2023, turning vary resistance into assist at $5.50. Value then rallied into $9.10, discovered resistance and retraced, retesting that vary resistance and forming a low above the 200dMA. Since, value has continued the pattern increased, rallying via $9.10 final week into the 23.6% fib of the bear market round prior assist at $10.78, the place we now have discovered some resistance. I might count on to see some consolidation right here however for a higher-low to kind above $8, resulting in a breakout via $10.78, with $16 as the subsequent goal past that. I’m nonetheless holding my spot bag from that vary and I’m in search of the 38.2% fib to be tagged at $18.60 earlier than I start contemplating promoting partials and scaling out, with a view to carry some for value discovery past $51 in a full-blown gaming mania in some unspecified time in the future on this cycle. In case you are on the sidelines trying to get in, I might be contemplating something near $8 as entry with invalidation at $5.50 and that $18 space as a primary goal.
enqAI:
ENQAI/USD
Day by day:
Value: $0.099 (136 satoshis)
Market Cap: $95.036mn
Ideas: As enqAI has solely been buying and selling for just a few months, we are going to look solely on the Greenback pair right here.
ENQAI/USD, we are able to see that value initially fashioned resistance at $0.041 earlier than retracing into an all-time low at $0.0068 shortly after buying and selling started. This marked out the underside, from which the pair then consolidated for a month between a higher-low at $0.0097 and resistance at $0.023. This vary gave manner in February, starting ENQAI’s first bull cycle, with value then making recent highs via $0.041 and now grinding increased inside a channel, forming an all-time excessive every week in the past round $0.15. We’ve since retraced to the underside of the channel and prior resistance at $0.084, appearing as assist. That is the extent bulls need to see maintain, as a breakdown under this degree and thru the underside of the channel would open up the probability of a deeper retracement again in the direction of that $0.041 degree to retest it as assist earlier than continuation increased can start. If this space does maintain, nonetheless, we’re taking a look at $0.22 as the subsequent main goal because the 1.618 extension of the pattern, someday late in March. If that is vertical accumulation earlier than a parabola/blow-off prime begins, we should always see the highest of the channel give manner and switch into assist, resulting in sharper rallies increased from there. On the finish of the day, we’re nonetheless pretty early within the AI crypto cycle and it’s doubtless these valuations change into far more ridiculous earlier than the cycle peaks, so holding this while its in value discovery and simply sitting in your palms is sensible to me.
Banana Gun:
BANANA/USD
Day by day:
Value: $35.99 (49,410 satoshis)
Market Cap: $86.186mnn
Ideas: Once more, as Banana Gun has solely been buying and selling for just a few months, let’s deal with the Greenback pair.
BANANA/USD, we are able to see that early price-action in September noticed value rally off assist at $5.38 into resistance at $14, earlier than retracing to kind a recent all-time low at $5 after which reclaiming $5.38 as assist. Subsequently, the pair started its first bull cycle and rallied via $14 into $18.77 in December, earlier than retracing right into a higher-low at $8.18 in January. We’ve since been on a constant pattern increased, with a parabolic advance at present in play. Value rallied into all-time highs a few days in the past at $39 and has been grinding increased inside a channel (just like ENQAI) since mid-February. I might count on to see this pattern persist right here and the rallies get steeper, so long as we don’t break and shut under $30. If that degree holds, I believe we see continuation into $48 later this month, adopted by some type of blow-off prime / parabola break someday in April, earlier than a interval of consolidation and correction earlier than what is going to doubtless be the ‘actual’ blow-off prime every time BTC/USD has marked a prime for this cycle. The choice state of affairs is that it simply continues to cling to this parabola and grind increased via April above $80 and past, however I’m leaning much less in the direction of this view at current.
League of Kingdoms:
LOKA/USD
Day by day:
LOKA/BTC
Day by day:
Value: $0.424 (583 satoshis)
Market Cap: $48.627mn
Ideas: As each pairs for LOKA look very related, let’s focus right here on the Greenback pair.
LOKA/USD, we are able to see that the venture launched throughout the bear market and suffered a 97% drawdown from the $5.50 all-time excessive in April 2022, falling all the way in which into $0.17 in September 2023, which marked out the underside. Value then reclaimed assist at $0.19 and started turning each day construction bullish, rallying for months till it hit the 360dMA at $0.34 and rejected twice, retracing off that degree into the 200dMA to kind a higher-low above $0.19 in February. From there, the pair has continued to rally, breaking via the 360dMA and turning it into assist for the primary time in its historical past. We’ve pushed from that degree into prior assist at $0.45, under which we at the moment are consolidating. I might count on to see the formation of a higher-low above $0.34 now, doubtless nearer to $0.38, and value to interrupt via $0.45 within the subsequent week or two, main an enormous vary of upside to be captured earlier than the subsequent main resistance. I will likely be trying to purchase acceptance above $0.45 with a view to carry into the $1.46 degree – the 23.6% fib of the bear market and prior assist turned resistance.
BuildAI:
BUILD/USD
4H:
![Cosmos [ATOM]: Merchants ought to look ahead to this key worth motion](https://sarkariresultbihar.info/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/News-Articles-FI-Editors-2024-11-21T100128.179-1000x600-120x86.jpg)
Value: $0.51 (686 satoshis)
Market Cap: $4.298mn
Ideas: As BuildAI has solely been buying and selling for just a few weeks, I’ve opted for the 4H chart right here of the Greenback pair for evaluation, given how little price-history is on the market.
BUILD/USD, we are able to see related price-action to early ENQAI, with a rally into resistance at $0.45, adopted by the primary correction and consolidation above assist at $0.15 (a 66% drawdown) after which the start of a bull cycle earlier this month off that assist degree. Value rallied via resistance at $0.31, turning it into assist, then cleared $0.45 making recent all-time highs. Since, we now have continued to push increased into $0.85 because the all-time excessive, however there are some indicators of exhaustion right here at current. You will need to be aware of the truth that this can be a 4H chart, nonetheless, so exhaustion is anticipated after a few weeks of rallying increased. We’ve reclaimed resistance at $0.71 forming that lower-high, however at present value is holding above prior highs turned assist at $0.45. This might very nicely mark the underside right here as this cluster of assist has been swept right into a key degree and value has discovered demand, and in that case we should always see a higher-low kind above $0.50 this week resulting in continuation via $0.85 into value discovery, with $1.25 as a goal past that. If, nonetheless, we want a bigger correction right here, $0.62 ought to now act as reclaimed resistance, forming one other decrease excessive, and value ought to break under $0.45 from there, opening up a transfer into the earlier mid-range at $0.31 (which can be the 78.6% fib retracement of this whole rally *and* across the similar drawdown because the earlier correction). If we get near $0.31, that may be entry for anybody trying to maintain this for a cycle.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be at liberty to depart any feedback or questions under, or e mail me immediately at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
![Cosmos [ATOM]: Merchants ought to look ahead to this key worth motion](https://sarkariresultbihar.info/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/News-Articles-FI-Editors-2024-11-21T100128.179-1000x600-350x250.jpg)
