Market Outlook #260 – An Altcoin Dealer’s Weblog

Market Outlook #260 (twenty first March 2024)

Hi there and welcome to the 260th instalment of my Market Outlook.

On this week’s submit, I can be overlaying Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Fantom, Illuvium and LooksRare, a few which had been reader requests. It’s a barely shorter submit this week specializing in extra of the actions of the majors – again to commonly scheduled programming from Monday.

As ever, in case you have any requests for subsequent week, please do let me know by way of electronic mail or within the feedback.

Bitcoin:

Weekly:

Each day:

Value: $65,405

Market Cap: $1.285trn

Ideas: Nicely, what a number of days it has been…

If we start by wanting on the weekly for BTC/USD, we will see that value closed final week proper beneath the earlier all-time excessive at $68.4k, having depraved into contemporary highs at $73.7k earlier than rejecting. Value has since additionally rejected off that weekly open and bought off in the direction of $59.2k, bouncing above it this week and now consolidating proper round prior resistance turned assist at $64.9k, which is a big degree to carry: this was the April 2021 excessive and holding above it right here would look very very like the breakout, rejection and retest from the earlier cycle’s all-time excessive break. Additional, holding right here confirms that the present parabola stays intact, main to cost discovery in April and Might till we see the parabola break in some unspecified time in the future. On this timeframe, there actually isn’t quite a bit to be involved with simply but. We now have an everyday pull-back from an important degree on the chart after an enormous run-up that constructed up a variety of leverage available in the market. This has just about been eviscerated this previous couple of weeks and it’s now a case of holding these increased timeframe assist ranges and persevering with increased, for my part. Now, if we had been to lose the $59k degree and shut the weekly beneath it, that may begin to look extra regarding – in actual fact, I’d count on that to result in a parabola break shortly after and thus doubtless a for much longer interval of consolidation and chop earlier than continuation increased. One factor so as to add right here can also be that there’s nothing but indicative of exhaustion on this timeframe: spot quantity is rising and momentum indicators are making higher-highs.

If we drop into the each day, I’ve marked out three situations I’m contemplating right here. The primary is probably the most bullish, which is {that a} higher-low was marked out this week at $60.7k, above the $59.2k swing-low, with that bullish engulfing resulting in the formation of a higher-low within the subsequent few days above $61k, after which a breakout and reclaim of $69k, turning that into assist earlier than value discovery. The second situation is that regardless of the bullish engulfing, value right this moment has rejected on the prior all-time highs and failed to make use of that momentum to interrupt above $68.9k, rejecting and turning decrease. This might mark out a lower-high inside this construction and result in a flush of this week’s low, inflicting a small liquidation cascade by way of $59.2k into $58k earlier than a pointy reversal begins from there again in the direction of all-time highs in April, retaining the parabola intact. The third situation is that we proceed to fall from right here by way of $61k, type one other lower-high beneath $65k after which break the parabola, closing beneath $58k – this extra bearish trajectory would result in an extended interval of consolidation and chop, with costs probably going as little as $48k earlier than marking out a backside in summer season after which starting a brand new parabola from there into value discovery and past. Actually, at current I’ve no certainty on any of those three, but when we begin to shut the each day beneath $64.9k and switch that degree into resistance intra-week, I’d count on the second situation to develop into the most certainly, liquidating a bunch of keen longs that jumped in after that bullish engulfing. I feel the longer consolidation is definitely believable, however I’m presently leaning in the direction of that being the least doubtless at current of the three. It’ll develop into extra clear if we do get beneath $61k and see no actual response from bulls…

Ethereum:

ETH/USD

Weekly:

Each day:

ETH/BTC

Weekly:

Each day:

Value: $3442 (0.05266 BTC)

Market Cap: $413.035bn

Ideas: Starting with ETH/USD, we will see that value rejected at reclaimed resistance round $3950 after which closed final week simply above $3600, persevering with to dump this week beneath prior assist at $3580 into $3034, earlier than bouncing and now consolidating round $3440. There’s completely nothing bearish about this construction on the weekly, with rising quantity and momentum with no indicators of exhaustion. At current, this appears to be like like a regular pull-back following 6 weeks of rallying. In reality, we may pull again into $2721 and type a higher-low there and it could nonetheless look fairly good on this timeframe. That mentioned, I don’t assume the market goes to be sort sufficient to present you $2700, however it illustrate the purpose of ETH’s structural power right here. If we drop into the each day, I’ve marked out the 2 situations I’m taking a look at right here, which can be decided by BTC I’d picture. The bearish situation which does grant you $2700 and a interval of consolidation and re-accumulation is probably going if BTC/USD does break the parabola and lose $58k. The sharper restoration is extra possible right here, for my part, and now we have already taken out that lengthy wick into $3284 and trapped breakdown shorts, in addition to liquidated a variety of longs, so I’d be in search of the formation of a higher-low this week above $3284, following by continuation by way of $3580 subsequent week into contemporary yearly highs in early April, particularly given how ETH shrugged off the SEC headlines yesterday. Provided that we shut the each day beneath $3284 do I feel this v-recovery doesn’t happen.

Turning to ETH/BTC, we will see that value bought off final week from the open into the shut proper above the 360wMA at 00.053 and this week discovered resistance at that weekly open, dumping into assist at 0.051 and bouncing, now consolidating between the 2 ranges. While this doesn’t look fairly, it additionally doesn’t look ugly – it simply appears to be like just like the worst chop of all time. We now have one thing of a sweep of the newest swing-low into demand and value wanting prefer it needs to carry 0.051 right here. If it could’t, and we shut the weekly beneath 0.051, then it appears to be like ugly, and we’ll doubtless want one other deep flush of 0.049 into 0.046 earlier than an actual backside kinds. If, nonetheless, assist holds right here, then we’re simply ready for that weekly lose by way of the trendline and for it to then maintain as assist the next week. Trying on the each day, we will see that value broke beneath native trendline resistance this week on that dump into 0.051 and is now retesting 0.0533 as resistance. This would be the key take a look at over the following day or two: reject right here and switch decrease and I feel it’s unlikely 0.051 is holding once more, and we’ll see the pair 5% decrease from there; if, nonetheless, we will break and shut again above that degree, I feel we take one other stab at that trendline.

Solana:

SOL/USD

Weekly:

Each day:

SOL/BTC

Weekly:

Each day:

Value: $178.18 (0.002726 BTC)

Market Cap: $79.248bn

Ideas: Starting with SOL/USD, we will see from the weekly that value closed final week at contemporary yearly highs, simply shy of the September 2021 excessive at $213 and the 78.6% fib of the bear market. This week has seen a small pull-back off that space into the 61.8% fib at $170, with value wicking beneath it into $162 and discovering assist. I may see this pulling again so far as $140 earlier than marking out a backside, if the remainder of the market is shifting decrease, and the pair would nonetheless look incredible. If we drop into the each day, we will see the parabolic advance from the December 2022 lows and the steepening of the rally this previous couple of weeks. Regardless of this, momentum indicators are displaying no indicators of exhaustion on the newest push increased into $212, and this presently simply appears to be like like a textbook reset earlier than continuation increased. If we do take out $162, I’d count on a variety of demand to step in above $144 and mark out a backside, from which the pair begins the leg into all-time highs. This might really even consolidate for a number of weeks with out breaking that parabolic advance. So long as it holds, new all-time highs earlier than Might is most certainly.

Turning to SOL/BTC, we will see that value may be very tightly holding to its parabolic curve right here, pushing off assist at 0.00207 final week into contemporary yearly highs, closing across the 61.8% fib of the bear market at 0.003. This week has seen a minor retracement off that degree, however nothing to counsel a break of the parabola simply but. We do have some indicators of attainable exhaustion up right here, however nothing concrete at current: this might simply bounce subsequent week above 0.0026 and proceed increased into 0.00377 after that with the parabola intact. If it does maintain, we’re taking a look at contemporary highs in summer season. Dropping into the each day, we will see that value swept the 0.0029 excessive and located resistance, with that degree now capping value. If we do see continuation decrease off this degree, I’d be in search of that prior resistance at 0.00244 to behave as assist, main to a different breakout try past 0.003. Actually, nothing majorly bearish in any respect on this timeframe. Simply search for a higher-low formation and bid till the parabola breaks.

Fantom:

FTM/USD

Weekly:

Each day:

FTM/BTC

Weekly:

Each day:

Value: $1.07 (1632 satoshis)

Market Cap: $3.004bn

Ideas: Starting with FTM/USD, we will see on the weekly that the pair has been marching forwards this previous few weeks, rallying by way of the 200wMA and turning it into assist at $0.55 earlier than breaking multi-year resistance at $0.64. This latter degree additionally turned assist as value pushed increased, with this previous week seeing the pair rally by way of a cluster of resistance beneath $1 into $1.14, the place it did reject. So long as we will shut the weekly above $1, I’d count on continuation increased over the following few weeks right here in the direction of the 38.2% fib of the bear market and prior resistance between $1.51-1.66. Momentum indicators are additionally displaying no indicators of slowing down simply but. Dropping into the each day, we will see that there was some divergence on the previous few pushes into resistance, and in basic bull market trend these had been invalidated as value closed by way of $0.98 and turned it into assist, marking out a higher-high on RSI. From right here, I’m anticipating to see some extra consolidation between $0.91-1.1.14 over the following week or so earlier than one other leg increased into $1.50 in early April.

Turning to FTM/BTC, we will see that weekly construction is confirmed as bullish with a collection of higher-highs and higher-lows because the October 2023 backside formation. The previous couple of weeks have seen the pair wrestle at 1309 satoshis, wicking into the 200wMA at 1422 satoshis however rejecting and shutting beneath that degree twice. This previous week value has lastly broke by way of the resistance cluster, rallying into the following main resistance at 1730 satoshis, with momentum additionally pointing increased. From right here, so long as we shut the week above 1400 satoshis, I’d count on value to consolidate a little bit after which run by way of 1900 satoshis into the 23.6% fib of the bear market and main assist turned resistance round 2420 satoshis, which is the place I’d count on an area prime to start forming. Except we now shut again inside 1308, the pattern appears to be like very sturdy. Dropping briefly into the each day, we will see how some consolidation right into a breakout would possibly look, however the primary factor to remove right here is that the 360dMA is now assist and there aren’t any indicators of momentum exhaustion up right here. I’m a Fantom bull for the foreseeable future.

Illuvium:

ILV/USD

Weekly:

Each day:

ILV/BTC

Weekly:

Each day:

Value: $130.03 (0.001989 BTC)

Market Cap: $822.166mn

Ideas: Starting with ILV/USD, we will see from the weekly that the pair has bottomed out and has fashioned sturdy bullish construction, with the next excessive by way of $120 a few weeks in the past into $162. Value then consolidated and has since flipped $121 into assist, which is holding at current. I’d now count on to see the following leg increased start from right here by way of $162 into contemporary yearly highs,, with fairly actually no resistance between there and the 200% fib extension of the pattern round prior assist at $240-260. Invalidation could be a weekly shut again beneath that $108 degree that had capped value for over a yr. Dropping into the each day, we will see how sturdy each day construction is right here and, while we did have some divergence on the newest push increased, I imagine this has performed out on the dump earlier this week. We must always now see a higher-low type above $120 and value to proceed by way of from there in the direction of $260 within the subsequent few weeks.

Turning to ILV/BTC, we will see that the pair has spent the majority of its existence in a downtrend, however following the all-time low formation at 0.00124 in October 2023, the pair rallied increased, reclaiming assist at 0.0016 and turning weekly construction bullish. Value marked out an area increased at 0.0033, and has since retraced into 0.0016, which has held as reclaimed assist for the very best a part of 2024. We are actually range-bound between that assist and prior assist turned resistance at 0.00224, and I’d count on upside decision of this vary given the weekly construction. If we get a weekly shut by way of 0.00224, that could be a very clear sign to purchase spot with invalidation at 0.0015, seeking to maintain for a cycle, with a serious goal at 0.01.

LooksRare:

LOOKS/USD

Each day:

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LOOKS/BTC

Each day:

Value: $0.131 (200 satoshis)

Market Cap: $130.877mn

Ideas: As each pairs for LooksRare look just about the identical given the relative lack of value historical past, let’s focus right here on the Greenback pair.

LOOKS/USD, we will see how value has lately rallied by way of the 200dMA and 360dMA that had been capping costs, with the latter by no means having been traded above prior besides a pretend out in December 2023. We pushed increased and reclaimed assist at $0.11 earlier than value discovered resistance at a yearly excessive round $0.187. We now have since retraced into $0.11, which is presently holding as assist, and the broader pattern is now pointing increased, with a collection of higher-highs and higher-lows, in addition to the beginnings of a parabolic advance. I’d count on to see the following leg increased for LOOKS start from right here, taking the pair by way of $0.19 in the direction of main resistance at $0.46, the place the two.618 extension of the present pattern can also be sat. The craziest factor, nonetheless, is how far off the highs we’re – the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market doesn’t even come into sight till $1.65, with the 38.2% fib at an important prior assist turned resistance round $2.60. That latter degree is the place I’m seeking to maintain this to, given the truth that LOOKS has by no means traded a bull cycle. I’ll look to exit most of my place round that degree both late this yr or early subsequent and maintain a little bit for a possible moon-shot at all-time highs. For the short-term, so long as we maintain above $0.09 this appears to be like fantastic for increased costs…

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. Again to full size subsequent week!

I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!

As ever, be at liberty to depart any feedback or questions beneath, or electronic mail me instantly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.