Let’s rewind to October seventeenth.
I don’t care about buying and selling anymore. I do nonetheless care about cash. My imaginative and prescient is to commerce 1-2x a month, nail the very best alternatives, then fuck off indefinitely and stay actual life. I’m only a (semi) retired sandwich blogger now.
I nonetheless have some hidden delusions although. Each 4 years I feel to myself… I could possibly be the sharpiest sharp of all sharps. For these unfamiliar with betting lingo, a “sharp” refers to an skilled and expert bettor who constantly makes worthwhile wagers–normally in sports activities betting or prediction markets. And sure, on this context of each 4 years, I’m speaking about the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Do you bear in mind the 2020 election? Let’s rewind once more.
It’s Trump versus Biden. Previous to election evening, Biden’s received an enormous lead within the polls and a good betting markets lead–however not fairly a full reflection of the polling lead as a result of no person trusts the polls anymore after 2016 when Hilary had a 4% polling lead and misplaced in an upset.
It’s 9pm EST on Nov fifth. Early votes are being counted. Trump begins to achieve a lead. The NYT needle goes from 80% Biden to 50% after which even additional to a dead-on 75% Trump lead. Dems and Biden bettors are on twitter panicking. Oh fuck, oh fuck, oh fuck, not once more… we’re repeating 2016–by no means belief polls, fuck Nate Silver eternally, why are we such idiots???
You’ve gotten Biden buying and selling on FTX at 20c. No one desires a bit of it. Trump gained once more, what’s the purpose?
The clock strikes midnight. Biden begins quickly regaining fairness within the swing states. All of them. Blue wall. Georgia. Nevada. Republicans and Trump bettors are actually panicking. What the fuck is that this shit, it’s rigged??? It’s these unlawful and fraudulent mail-in votes!
The sharpiest sharp bettors reveal themselves on twitter because the 20c Biden patrons. They cashed in. The blue wave got here in through the mail and so they received counted later than the walk-in voters. Bernie Sanders even warned beforehand how this is able to unfold. The remaining is historical past, Joe Biden wins.
INFORMATION IS KEY! All these reversals, volatility, concern, inefficiencies… you may swash buckle by way of all of that and money in with appropriate info. You’ve gotten the proper info, you make the proper bets, you’re a legendary sharp eternally. Think about being the bottom-tick on such a historic occasion? I needed that notch on my belt.
So whereas I’ve been largely ignoring politics up till October seventeenth, one thing reignited my curiosity within the political betting markets. It was this tweet.
This Domer man was, on the time, the #1 most worthwhile dealer on Polymarket. He seen an enormous sum of money coming in on the Trump YES vote and did a bit of digging to find it was this enormous French whale bettor on a number of accounts, betting a staggering $40 million on Trump to win the electoral and the favored.
I seen on the time seeing Kamala’s In style Vote odds buying and selling round 62c, far decrease than a lot of the yr.
My preliminary thought was that is free cash! The Dems haven’t misplaced the favored vote since 2004 and previous to that, since Reagan within the 80s. They’ve completely dominated the pop vote, even in shedding years with “weak candidates” like 2016. Kamala Pop Vote YES needs to be buying and selling north of 80% and the one motive it at the moment isn’t is as a result of this French whale bettor is jamming the market up with an excessive amount of cash. Market manipulation!? Possibly. All I do know is that this: it’s time for me to fade this and be the sharpiest sharp of all sharps.
If one thing is really free cash, I’m not scared to guess $100k or extra on it however after some fast preliminary analysis, I needed to examine myself a bit. I wrote a lot of the the reason why in my sandwich weblog right here. Lengthy story quick, right here’s why I misplaced confidence within the Kamala common vote guess and determined to guess a small quantity solely: 1) I’m a vacationer with no experience on this, 2) her polling lead is much more slim than 2016 and Trump has outperformed polls traditionally, and three) there’s no reliable knowledge to make me really feel assured Kamala would outperform her projections, it’s simply nice-sounding narrative-driven concepts like a file turnout from single-issue voting girls. I wanted to consider in one thing actual to really feel assured however since I didn’t, I needed to downgrade my conviction. New evaluation was as such: Kamala’s value was most likely truthful worth, perhaps barely good worth on condition that Polymarket was buying and selling at Trump premium relative to different websites, however removed from free cash.
Pete being an election sharp who makes a killing? Nah, not but, not on this. Possibly the sudden occasion occurs on election evening with dramatic reversals and that would be the large play like in 2020 however for now, I held off on any actual threat. Most likely greatest to discover a commerce that matches my core competency: Brief a bit of shit inventory whereas it’s going parabolic.
October twenty ninth, 7 days earlier than election
Take a look at this factor. These are the conditions which can be up my alley and so they don’t require any evaluation on bullshit polling knowledge. It doesn’t matter who wins the election to win on this commerce.
This inventory is DJT aka Fact Social and previously often called DWAC. It’s a bit of shit. It’s going parabolic. Bins are checked. Regardless that I’d desire the height of the parabolic transfer heading proper into the occasion (just like what occurred on the China play), it looks like max participation on DJT was occurring the week previous to the election. I needed to get quick now moderately than wait till post-election.
That is an apparent Promote-the-Information state of affairs. If Trump loses, DJT has an enormous hole down. That’s the plain half. Right here’s the half that poorly-informed buyers don’t perceive: If Trump wins, he’ll most likely need to promote the stake which provides provide to the inventory. Or even when he doesn’t do this immediately, market dynamics will handle it. Max participation has already been reached and early speculators will dump on the late patrons. There isn’t a viable enterprise with DJT, it’s purely a vibes inventory and also you simply have to know how the vibes ebb and circulate.
The inventory could possibly be tough and I didn’t need to adapt an intraday mindset and get caught up within the small swings so I made a decision to separate my quick place between shorting bare calls with large premiums that I’d maintain till expiration and shorting a bit of little bit of inventory that I’d cowl into an enormous preliminary dip.
I quick $50k value of premium on 60, 65, and 70, a mixture of Nov 1 and Nov 8 strikes. How do I decide which strikes? I’ve a really sophisticated fair-value choices pricing mannequin that decided no I’m simply guessing like you might be, these seem to be good costs to me. I additionally quick 2500 shares within the 50s. I cowl the inventory into the dip within the mid 40s to make round $15k. The inventory reverses that dip and goes proper again to 54, even making a brand new intraday excessive. See–that’s the annoying shit while you’re day buying and selling. These intraday V-shape reversals that eat up all of your positive factors if you’re too locked right into a deeper goal to cowl. I determine to carry my bare choices place, pondering these are good ranges to be quick if DJT manages to get there and I’d have my fats 600% IV premiums as a backstop. It fluctuates between purple and inexperienced for a lot of the day.
October thirtieth, 6 days earlier than election
After a twisty & turny first day within the postion, I’d like a pleasant fats purple candle to correctly verify that I’m proper and I get precisely that.
Inventory’s weak. Revenue taking ensues.
By week’s finish on Nov 1st, DJT closes at $30.56 Straightforward cash. Nonetheless hanging onto my Nov eighth bare calls place whereas the Nov 1st strikes expire nugatory. My blended choices place is marked up +$50,000 to this point.
November 4th, 1 day earlier than election
A bunch of shit occurred over the weekend. Kamala has closed on the preliminary Trump swing within the betting markets. Within the electoral school betting contracts, she reaches 50-50 with Trump on Kalshi. Within the common vote on Polymarket, Kamala’s YES value that was as soon as as little as 58c now climbs again to 75c, proper across the vary it was buying and selling in earlier than the (perhaps Freddi-driven) October seventeenth Trump swing. Why did this occur? An 800-sample ballot in Iowa favoring Kamala by 3. It’s the holy grail of all polls or one thing, in line with election nerds. I don’t actually get it.
It doesn’t make sense to me so I make a guess on Trump to win Iowa after the Selzer ballot pushes Trump Iowa YES from 97c to 81c. I’m nonetheless preserving every little thing small, anticipating higher alternatives the evening of the election.
The market opens. I’m grasping and I need to make 100k so the mindset is so as to add threat. Including threat at this level, with DJT having already accurately close to 50% from its highs, is taking me away from doing the environment friendly factor, the professional factor, the sharp factor… which is to flatten my place for a fats realized revenue after which have the choice to reload into extra volatility with 2 buying and selling periods to go earlier than the second of the reality.
Effectively perhaps he’ll lose and I gained’t even stress it. Selzer ballot could possibly be the reality? that’s the shit I say to make myself really feel higher about my strikes, despite the fact that I don’t consider it.
DJT CLEARLY bottoms on Monday. I imply, it dips beneath $30 and reclaims $30. Then it goes inexperienced after it’s been detrimental 4 straight days. After all it desires a final hurrah into Nov fifth.
I imply, don’t be a fucking pig Pete. Jesus Christ. Cut back and wait?
I commerce large as soon as a month. That is the play. I gotta get to $100k revenue potential and let it make my month. Everybody will get what they need out of the market. I need to win $100k, let’s win 100k.
So DJT climbs again to $35 in the course of the day. I preserve writing bare Nov eighth calls. IV has now reached a staggering 675%. I’m fairly positive these persons are dumb. I’ve been buying and selling 15 years, I’m not the dumb one.
I begin trying on the OTM places expiring on Friday. $20 places are buying and selling at 2.50. $15 places are buying and selling at $1.25. These are merely insane costs for buyers to be shopping for insurance coverage if Trump loses .
Now I feel to myself: Let’s get fancy and switch this into a unadorned straddle. Either side are silly!
I quick about $15k in OTM places. Not practically as a lot because the bare name facet however I’m fairly positive that is the good transfer. To begin with, Trump is favored. Second of all, even when he loses, it might nonetheless want a 50% hole all the way down to threaten my strikes and REMEMBER… this isn’t a biotech that halts down and opens 80% and goes sideways all day. No that solely occurs when there’s a inventory buying and selling on enterprise fundamentals. This can be a VIBES inventory. You suppose if Trump loses and it’s nonetheless shut after which DJT gaps down, that each one these MAGA believers will simply puke out and take the L? They’re gonna say it’s rigged and wait it out till January. That’s what they did in 2020 when FTX Trump YES contracts nonetheless traded above 5c till inauguration. It should bounce simply on that and all I would like is 3 extra days.
That’s IF he loses after all. So now I’ve about 75k in complete premium, most of it nonetheless in inexperienced PnL from final week’s excellent entries. DJT then gaps up afterhours to $37 and a perfectionist a part of me says I ought to have lined the decision facet and reloaded however no matter–what’s finished is completed, be a person and abdomen the vol.
November fifth, the day of the election
It’s 10am. DJT trades at $40. My calls’ mark-to-market revenue has now declined by greater than 50% from its peak on Monday morning. It was as soon as at 50k, now it sits round 25k. The bare places have hardly budged, they’re solely down 10% for some motive. IV has now climbed to 750%. I preserve including bare calls on the way in which up, together with some $47 strikes, which is a bit of aggressive.
Ought to have lined at $30 and reloaded at $40 Pete. I’m getting a bit of nervous, perhaps cease including?
I attempt to scalp DJT with day trades however I wrestle and chop myself up for -2k. It annoys me even when it’s only a fraction of what’s at stake on the bare straddle. I’m simply not the identical man with regards to fast sport buying and selling nowadays.
I determine to show my pc off for a number of hours and take a nap. This isn’t going to resolve till the morning of the election, there’s nothing to do. I’ve made my mattress and determined so as to add threat right into a binary occasion moderately than do the straightforward factor of simply taking a pleasant revenue earlier than hand and perhaps reloading at higher costs or just buying and selling post-event. I do know what I’m doing.
I get up and I determine to examine quotes.
DJT is halt restrict down.
I don’t suppose this issues till tomorrow however my mark-to-market seems to be quite a bit higher which helps my lizard mind really feel higher.
I do know what I’m doing. Freddi might be only a wealthy idiot and Trump isn’t that sturdy! This can be a 50-50 race and so they’re dumping.
I add much more bare calls. I’m as much as $105k in premiums. Now at this level, I discover that my straddles aren’t actually declining that a lot… as a result of the IVs have jumped to over 800%.
I’ve a dialog with my good pal Clockwork, who can be on this identical commerce however he’s extra conservative than I’m and has solely shorted strikes $80 and better on the decision facet. And most of our little chat isn’t actually something earth-shattering, it’s a easy commerce and we each know the dangers. However I write this out to him.
Pete: am I being an fool? I can’t consider these persons are paying 800 pct IV for this. Both facet.
Clockwork: yeah I imply it may discover $50 if Trump wins once more. I’m solely writing $80 or greater.
Pete: no. they’re positively idiots. if i’m the fool, so be it however I’m not.
November fifth, 7:45pm
I’m in mattress. Not as a result of I’m sleeping however as a result of I lie down with my 1 yr outdated daughter till she knocks herself out. If I’m not there, she will get upset. I’m taking a look at costs on my telephone whereas holding her tiny hand. Most likely too early for motion as a result of polls haven’t even closed but… proper?
No. It went to $45 on air with only a whiff of Trump having some small leads in exit polling. Is it attainable.. that… I’ve utterly fucked this up? I may have simply taken my $50k from final week and waited till Nov sixth to re-evaluate with no in a single day threat. Um…
I’m now very, very afraid. I assumed this state of affairs would possibly occur… a spot to $45-50. I figured thats the almost certainly state of affairs on a Trump win. However when it’s ALREADY THERE OVERNIGHT?
What if I missed the mark? What am I even basing my situations on, simply make-believe costs? Intestine feeling? What if that is at $80 pre-market? Fuckin’ fool. Was at 800 IV for a motive you dumb fool.
What’s finished is completed although. What about being the sharpiest sharp of all sharps by making genius bets on large election evening overreactions? It’s nonetheless early… however Trump is climbing. Polymarket has his Electoral YES at 75c. The NYT needle has him inching to 70%.
It’s 9pm.
My small Kamala Pop YES vote begins to crumble on Polymarket. It’s now buying and selling under 50c. Fuck no that was by no means free cash. I’m not even tempted to double down. Possibly it was by no means actually a 50-50 race, perhaps all of us simply measured a Trump landslide poorly from the getgo. I’m an fool with regards to political betting, I don’t know shit.
I take a look at the DJT in a single day costs… $50.
Bro. What if Freddi purchased DJT in that afterhours spike? He knew. HE KNEW.
I determine to withdraw my remaining cash off Polymarket moderately than make new bets and stay as much as being the tremendous sharp of my goals. I feel Trump clearly has it locked up and there doubtless gained’t be any superb reversals.
I’m means too emotional proper now to become profitable. My govt perform has deteriorated and I don’t really feel in management. I’m simply watching issues unfold moderately than being in “head on a swivel” mode in search of betting alternatives. I hate this sense–it’s why I’m semi-retired now, I can’t recover from this. Sleep is of utmost significance… we’d need to go conflict with Freddi tomorrow.
November sixth, the morning after
I get up at 3:55am. I haven’t been awake right now for a very long time–not even for the China guess a month in the past.
Regardless that there’s nothing I can do as a result of I don’t even have the proper dealer to commerce at 4am, I’m watching quotes anyway to place myself by way of ache. 4am, the exchanges open… DJT trades to $54. Jesus Christ. If it will get above final week’s excessive and holds, I’d lose six figures like an asshole.
I attempt to sleep however I simply find yourself doing the identical factor, attempt to sleep… stressed.. examine telephone once more. It’s now again beneath $50, hitting a low of $42… my lowest strike is $47… I feel I’m okay… or is that pure copium earlier than the most important loss ever? I don’t know. It’s means too early. Retired merchants shouldn’t care about extremely early pre-market costs. I can’t do that anymore.
8am.
DJT has settled beneath $45 properly… it *appears* like a pre-market sell-off. Worry subsides whereas expertise and intuition return to my blood stream. I do know what to do–I must quick the inventory when this opens. I enter a market order at 9:30–not one thing I normally do however my fast thought was if that is what I feel it’ll be, then the highest will likely be in very early.
9:30am.
There’s an enormous quantity of quantity, a lot in order that my quotes lag. My stage II is exhibiting DJT $45 bid/ask when it’s already buying and selling at $42. I fill quick low 44s. It sinks like a rock within the first 10 minutes and has a restrict down halt at $39.
By the shut, $36 with a low of $34
Afterhours…buying and selling at $32 and totally roundtripping the complete election victory achieve. My bare straddle is a lock to run out nugatory on either side.
Promote The Information my pal. All the time Promote the Information.
Obtained my 100k (and extra). Freddi has his tens of hundreds of thousands–all good with me, we will’t all be whales. I’m only a sandwich blogger now and I fortunately take what’s mine. See you all in 4 years.
Let’s rewind to October seventeenth.
I don’t care about buying and selling anymore. I do nonetheless care about cash. My imaginative and prescient is to commerce 1-2x a month, nail the very best alternatives, then fuck off indefinitely and stay actual life. I’m only a (semi) retired sandwich blogger now.
I nonetheless have some hidden delusions although. Each 4 years I feel to myself… I could possibly be the sharpiest sharp of all sharps. For these unfamiliar with betting lingo, a “sharp” refers to an skilled and expert bettor who constantly makes worthwhile wagers–normally in sports activities betting or prediction markets. And sure, on this context of each 4 years, I’m speaking about the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Do you bear in mind the 2020 election? Let’s rewind once more.
It’s Trump versus Biden. Previous to election evening, Biden’s received an enormous lead within the polls and a good betting markets lead–however not fairly a full reflection of the polling lead as a result of no person trusts the polls anymore after 2016 when Hilary had a 4% polling lead and misplaced in an upset.
It’s 9pm EST on Nov fifth. Early votes are being counted. Trump begins to achieve a lead. The NYT needle goes from 80% Biden to 50% after which even additional to a dead-on 75% Trump lead. Dems and Biden bettors are on twitter panicking. Oh fuck, oh fuck, oh fuck, not once more… we’re repeating 2016–by no means belief polls, fuck Nate Silver eternally, why are we such idiots???
You’ve gotten Biden buying and selling on FTX at 20c. No one desires a bit of it. Trump gained once more, what’s the purpose?
The clock strikes midnight. Biden begins quickly regaining fairness within the swing states. All of them. Blue wall. Georgia. Nevada. Republicans and Trump bettors are actually panicking. What the fuck is that this shit, it’s rigged??? It’s these unlawful and fraudulent mail-in votes!
The sharpiest sharp bettors reveal themselves on twitter because the 20c Biden patrons. They cashed in. The blue wave got here in through the mail and so they received counted later than the walk-in voters. Bernie Sanders even warned beforehand how this is able to unfold. The remaining is historical past, Joe Biden wins.
INFORMATION IS KEY! All these reversals, volatility, concern, inefficiencies… you may swash buckle by way of all of that and money in with appropriate info. You’ve gotten the proper info, you make the proper bets, you’re a legendary sharp eternally. Think about being the bottom-tick on such a historic occasion? I needed that notch on my belt.
So whereas I’ve been largely ignoring politics up till October seventeenth, one thing reignited my curiosity within the political betting markets. It was this tweet.
This Domer man was, on the time, the #1 most worthwhile dealer on Polymarket. He seen an enormous sum of money coming in on the Trump YES vote and did a bit of digging to find it was this enormous French whale bettor on a number of accounts, betting a staggering $40 million on Trump to win the electoral and the favored.
I seen on the time seeing Kamala’s In style Vote odds buying and selling round 62c, far decrease than a lot of the yr.
My preliminary thought was that is free cash! The Dems haven’t misplaced the favored vote since 2004 and previous to that, since Reagan within the 80s. They’ve completely dominated the pop vote, even in shedding years with “weak candidates” like 2016. Kamala Pop Vote YES needs to be buying and selling north of 80% and the one motive it at the moment isn’t is as a result of this French whale bettor is jamming the market up with an excessive amount of cash. Market manipulation!? Possibly. All I do know is that this: it’s time for me to fade this and be the sharpiest sharp of all sharps.
If one thing is really free cash, I’m not scared to guess $100k or extra on it however after some fast preliminary analysis, I needed to examine myself a bit. I wrote a lot of the the reason why in my sandwich weblog right here. Lengthy story quick, right here’s why I misplaced confidence within the Kamala common vote guess and determined to guess a small quantity solely: 1) I’m a vacationer with no experience on this, 2) her polling lead is much more slim than 2016 and Trump has outperformed polls traditionally, and three) there’s no reliable knowledge to make me really feel assured Kamala would outperform her projections, it’s simply nice-sounding narrative-driven concepts like a file turnout from single-issue voting girls. I wanted to consider in one thing actual to really feel assured however since I didn’t, I needed to downgrade my conviction. New evaluation was as such: Kamala’s value was most likely truthful worth, perhaps barely good worth on condition that Polymarket was buying and selling at Trump premium relative to different websites, however removed from free cash.
Pete being an election sharp who makes a killing? Nah, not but, not on this. Possibly the sudden occasion occurs on election evening with dramatic reversals and that would be the large play like in 2020 however for now, I held off on any actual threat. Most likely greatest to discover a commerce that matches my core competency: Brief a bit of shit inventory whereas it’s going parabolic.
October twenty ninth, 7 days earlier than election
Take a look at this factor. These are the conditions which can be up my alley and so they don’t require any evaluation on bullshit polling knowledge. It doesn’t matter who wins the election to win on this commerce.
This inventory is DJT aka Fact Social and previously often called DWAC. It’s a bit of shit. It’s going parabolic. Bins are checked. Regardless that I’d desire the height of the parabolic transfer heading proper into the occasion (just like what occurred on the China play), it looks like max participation on DJT was occurring the week previous to the election. I needed to get quick now moderately than wait till post-election.
That is an apparent Promote-the-Information state of affairs. If Trump loses, DJT has an enormous hole down. That’s the plain half. Right here’s the half that poorly-informed buyers don’t perceive: If Trump wins, he’ll most likely need to promote the stake which provides provide to the inventory. Or even when he doesn’t do this immediately, market dynamics will handle it. Max participation has already been reached and early speculators will dump on the late patrons. There isn’t a viable enterprise with DJT, it’s purely a vibes inventory and also you simply have to know how the vibes ebb and circulate.
The inventory could possibly be tough and I didn’t need to adapt an intraday mindset and get caught up within the small swings so I made a decision to separate my quick place between shorting bare calls with large premiums that I’d maintain till expiration and shorting a bit of little bit of inventory that I’d cowl into an enormous preliminary dip.
I quick $50k value of premium on 60, 65, and 70, a mixture of Nov 1 and Nov 8 strikes. How do I decide which strikes? I’ve a really sophisticated fair-value choices pricing mannequin that decided no I’m simply guessing like you might be, these seem to be good costs to me. I additionally quick 2500 shares within the 50s. I cowl the inventory into the dip within the mid 40s to make round $15k. The inventory reverses that dip and goes proper again to 54, even making a brand new intraday excessive. See–that’s the annoying shit while you’re day buying and selling. These intraday V-shape reversals that eat up all of your positive factors if you’re too locked right into a deeper goal to cowl. I determine to carry my bare choices place, pondering these are good ranges to be quick if DJT manages to get there and I’d have my fats 600% IV premiums as a backstop. It fluctuates between purple and inexperienced for a lot of the day.
October thirtieth, 6 days earlier than election
After a twisty & turny first day within the postion, I’d like a pleasant fats purple candle to correctly verify that I’m proper and I get precisely that.
Inventory’s weak. Revenue taking ensues.
By week’s finish on Nov 1st, DJT closes at $30.56 Straightforward cash. Nonetheless hanging onto my Nov eighth bare calls place whereas the Nov 1st strikes expire nugatory. My blended choices place is marked up +$50,000 to this point.
November 4th, 1 day earlier than election
A bunch of shit occurred over the weekend. Kamala has closed on the preliminary Trump swing within the betting markets. Within the electoral school betting contracts, she reaches 50-50 with Trump on Kalshi. Within the common vote on Polymarket, Kamala’s YES value that was as soon as as little as 58c now climbs again to 75c, proper across the vary it was buying and selling in earlier than the (perhaps Freddi-driven) October seventeenth Trump swing. Why did this occur? An 800-sample ballot in Iowa favoring Kamala by 3. It’s the holy grail of all polls or one thing, in line with election nerds. I don’t actually get it.
It doesn’t make sense to me so I make a guess on Trump to win Iowa after the Selzer ballot pushes Trump Iowa YES from 97c to 81c. I’m nonetheless preserving every little thing small, anticipating higher alternatives the evening of the election.
The market opens. I’m grasping and I need to make 100k so the mindset is so as to add threat. Including threat at this level, with DJT having already accurately close to 50% from its highs, is taking me away from doing the environment friendly factor, the professional factor, the sharp factor… which is to flatten my place for a fats realized revenue after which have the choice to reload into extra volatility with 2 buying and selling periods to go earlier than the second of the reality.
Effectively perhaps he’ll lose and I gained’t even stress it. Selzer ballot could possibly be the reality? that’s the shit I say to make myself really feel higher about my strikes, despite the fact that I don’t consider it.
DJT CLEARLY bottoms on Monday. I imply, it dips beneath $30 and reclaims $30. Then it goes inexperienced after it’s been detrimental 4 straight days. After all it desires a final hurrah into Nov fifth.
I imply, don’t be a fucking pig Pete. Jesus Christ. Cut back and wait?
I commerce large as soon as a month. That is the play. I gotta get to $100k revenue potential and let it make my month. Everybody will get what they need out of the market. I need to win $100k, let’s win 100k.
So DJT climbs again to $35 in the course of the day. I preserve writing bare Nov eighth calls. IV has now reached a staggering 675%. I’m fairly positive these persons are dumb. I’ve been buying and selling 15 years, I’m not the dumb one.
I begin trying on the OTM places expiring on Friday. $20 places are buying and selling at 2.50. $15 places are buying and selling at $1.25. These are merely insane costs for buyers to be shopping for insurance coverage if Trump loses .
Now I feel to myself: Let’s get fancy and switch this into a unadorned straddle. Either side are silly!
I quick about $15k in OTM places. Not practically as a lot because the bare name facet however I’m fairly positive that is the good transfer. To begin with, Trump is favored. Second of all, even when he loses, it might nonetheless want a 50% hole all the way down to threaten my strikes and REMEMBER… this isn’t a biotech that halts down and opens 80% and goes sideways all day. No that solely occurs when there’s a inventory buying and selling on enterprise fundamentals. This can be a VIBES inventory. You suppose if Trump loses and it’s nonetheless shut after which DJT gaps down, that each one these MAGA believers will simply puke out and take the L? They’re gonna say it’s rigged and wait it out till January. That’s what they did in 2020 when FTX Trump YES contracts nonetheless traded above 5c till inauguration. It should bounce simply on that and all I would like is 3 extra days.
That’s IF he loses after all. So now I’ve about 75k in complete premium, most of it nonetheless in inexperienced PnL from final week’s excellent entries. DJT then gaps up afterhours to $37 and a perfectionist a part of me says I ought to have lined the decision facet and reloaded however no matter–what’s finished is completed, be a person and abdomen the vol.
November fifth, the day of the election
It’s 10am. DJT trades at $40. My calls’ mark-to-market revenue has now declined by greater than 50% from its peak on Monday morning. It was as soon as at 50k, now it sits round 25k. The bare places have hardly budged, they’re solely down 10% for some motive. IV has now climbed to 750%. I preserve including bare calls on the way in which up, together with some $47 strikes, which is a bit of aggressive.
Ought to have lined at $30 and reloaded at $40 Pete. I’m getting a bit of nervous, perhaps cease including?
I attempt to scalp DJT with day trades however I wrestle and chop myself up for -2k. It annoys me even when it’s only a fraction of what’s at stake on the bare straddle. I’m simply not the identical man with regards to fast sport buying and selling nowadays.
I determine to show my pc off for a number of hours and take a nap. This isn’t going to resolve till the morning of the election, there’s nothing to do. I’ve made my mattress and determined so as to add threat right into a binary occasion moderately than do the straightforward factor of simply taking a pleasant revenue earlier than hand and perhaps reloading at higher costs or just buying and selling post-event. I do know what I’m doing.
I get up and I determine to examine quotes.
DJT is halt restrict down.
I don’t suppose this issues till tomorrow however my mark-to-market seems to be quite a bit higher which helps my lizard mind really feel higher.
I do know what I’m doing. Freddi might be only a wealthy idiot and Trump isn’t that sturdy! This can be a 50-50 race and so they’re dumping.
I add much more bare calls. I’m as much as $105k in premiums. Now at this level, I discover that my straddles aren’t actually declining that a lot… as a result of the IVs have jumped to over 800%.
I’ve a dialog with my good pal Clockwork, who can be on this identical commerce however he’s extra conservative than I’m and has solely shorted strikes $80 and better on the decision facet. And most of our little chat isn’t actually something earth-shattering, it’s a easy commerce and we each know the dangers. However I write this out to him.
Pete: am I being an fool? I can’t consider these persons are paying 800 pct IV for this. Both facet.
Clockwork: yeah I imply it may discover $50 if Trump wins once more. I’m solely writing $80 or greater.
Pete: no. they’re positively idiots. if i’m the fool, so be it however I’m not.
November fifth, 7:45pm
I’m in mattress. Not as a result of I’m sleeping however as a result of I lie down with my 1 yr outdated daughter till she knocks herself out. If I’m not there, she will get upset. I’m taking a look at costs on my telephone whereas holding her tiny hand. Most likely too early for motion as a result of polls haven’t even closed but… proper?
No. It went to $45 on air with only a whiff of Trump having some small leads in exit polling. Is it attainable.. that… I’ve utterly fucked this up? I may have simply taken my $50k from final week and waited till Nov sixth to re-evaluate with no in a single day threat. Um…
I’m now very, very afraid. I assumed this state of affairs would possibly occur… a spot to $45-50. I figured thats the almost certainly state of affairs on a Trump win. However when it’s ALREADY THERE OVERNIGHT?
What if I missed the mark? What am I even basing my situations on, simply make-believe costs? Intestine feeling? What if that is at $80 pre-market? Fuckin’ fool. Was at 800 IV for a motive you dumb fool.
What’s finished is completed although. What about being the sharpiest sharp of all sharps by making genius bets on large election evening overreactions? It’s nonetheless early… however Trump is climbing. Polymarket has his Electoral YES at 75c. The NYT needle has him inching to 70%.
It’s 9pm.
My small Kamala Pop YES vote begins to crumble on Polymarket. It’s now buying and selling under 50c. Fuck no that was by no means free cash. I’m not even tempted to double down. Possibly it was by no means actually a 50-50 race, perhaps all of us simply measured a Trump landslide poorly from the getgo. I’m an fool with regards to political betting, I don’t know shit.
I take a look at the DJT in a single day costs… $50.
Bro. What if Freddi purchased DJT in that afterhours spike? He knew. HE KNEW.
I determine to withdraw my remaining cash off Polymarket moderately than make new bets and stay as much as being the tremendous sharp of my goals. I feel Trump clearly has it locked up and there doubtless gained’t be any superb reversals.
I’m means too emotional proper now to become profitable. My govt perform has deteriorated and I don’t really feel in management. I’m simply watching issues unfold moderately than being in “head on a swivel” mode in search of betting alternatives. I hate this sense–it’s why I’m semi-retired now, I can’t recover from this. Sleep is of utmost significance… we’d need to go conflict with Freddi tomorrow.
November sixth, the morning after
I get up at 3:55am. I haven’t been awake right now for a very long time–not even for the China guess a month in the past.
Regardless that there’s nothing I can do as a result of I don’t even have the proper dealer to commerce at 4am, I’m watching quotes anyway to place myself by way of ache. 4am, the exchanges open… DJT trades to $54. Jesus Christ. If it will get above final week’s excessive and holds, I’d lose six figures like an asshole.
I attempt to sleep however I simply find yourself doing the identical factor, attempt to sleep… stressed.. examine telephone once more. It’s now again beneath $50, hitting a low of $42… my lowest strike is $47… I feel I’m okay… or is that pure copium earlier than the most important loss ever? I don’t know. It’s means too early. Retired merchants shouldn’t care about extremely early pre-market costs. I can’t do that anymore.
8am.
DJT has settled beneath $45 properly… it *appears* like a pre-market sell-off. Worry subsides whereas expertise and intuition return to my blood stream. I do know what to do–I must quick the inventory when this opens. I enter a market order at 9:30–not one thing I normally do however my fast thought was if that is what I feel it’ll be, then the highest will likely be in very early.
9:30am.
There’s an enormous quantity of quantity, a lot in order that my quotes lag. My stage II is exhibiting DJT $45 bid/ask when it’s already buying and selling at $42. I fill quick low 44s. It sinks like a rock within the first 10 minutes and has a restrict down halt at $39.
By the shut, $36 with a low of $34
Afterhours…buying and selling at $32 and totally roundtripping the complete election victory achieve. My bare straddle is a lock to run out nugatory on either side.
Promote The Information my pal. All the time Promote the Information.
Obtained my 100k (and extra). Freddi has his tens of hundreds of thousands–all good with me, we will’t all be whales. I’m only a sandwich blogger now and I fortunately take what’s mine. See you all in 4 years.
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